Future automotive technologies represent a US$1.6 trillion opportunity in 2034

Future Automotive Technologies 2024-2034: Applications, Megatrends, Forecasts

The automotive megatrends that will define the future of vehicles: autonomous driving, mobility as a service, electric vehicles, connected cars, software-defined vehicles, everything-as-a-service, and more.

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Autonomous driving technologies and vehicle electrification are megatrends that are reshaping the automotive industry. In addition to these, connected and software defined vehicles have recently emerged with the potential to create new revenue streams, while safety applications from in-cabin monitoring will drive the market for a variety of sensors. "Future Automotive Technologies 2024-2034: Applications, Megatrends, Forecasts" covers all these technologies, highlighting at a high level what these technologies are, what is driving them, where the opportunity is, and how much they will be worth. Between the new services that they provide and the components they require, IDTechEx predicts a market value of more than US$1.6 trillion in 2034.
Source IDTechEx
Autonomous driving
There are two significant opportunities to be aware of when it comes to autonomous driving: the growth of automotive perception sensors market and the creation of an autonomous mobility industry. The former already has a market size of more than US$10 billion, mostly dominated by cameras and radars for ADAS (advanced driver assistance system) applications. Technologies under this umbrella include adaptive cruise control, automatic emergency braking and lane keep assist. These typically require a combination of radars and cameras and are already ubiquitous across the automotive industry, with partially automated SAE level 2 vehicles now commonplace amongst new car sales. This hardware market will continue to see growth through further penetration of level 2 technologies, but it is the emergence of SAE level 3 technologies which will drive the predicted 10-year CAGR of 13.6%. In 2022 and 2023 the Mercedes S-Class has been bringing SAE level 3 self-driving technologies to consumers in multiple regions, this represents a watershed moment after which the journey toward widespread availability of level 3 technologies begins. "Future Automotive Technologies 2024-2034: Applications, Megatrends, Forecasts" provides forecasts that show how level 3 technologies will spread across the market and what impact it will have on the demand for cameras, radar and LiDAR.
Autonomous driving also promises a cheap and safe form of mobility provided by robotaxis. These will carry even more sensors than consumer vehicles, with each robotaxi possessing a suite worth into the tens of thousands of dollars presently. However, the fiscal opportunity that they offer has more to do with the service they provide than the hardware they require. The total car fleet already travels more than ten trillion miles annually, as robotaxis start to take some of this demand they will generate hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue. This report provides analysis of current robotaxi performance and deployment and forecasts their city by city spread and progression toward a mainstream alternative to car ownership.
In 2022 and 2023 electric cars have made the transition from early adopter technology to mainstream. Their necessity has been foreshadowed by increasing pressure to decarbonise the automotive industry and reduce the impact to the climate. Looming bans on internal combustion engines (ICE) from different nations combined with manufacturers' internal ICE phase-out targets means that their future dominance is almost certain.
The opportunity they bring to the automotive industry is through the new components they require. Large lithium-ion batteries, powerful traction motors, and accompanying power electronics have not previously had a place in the automotive market. In 2023 these components combine to create a market size of more than US$100 million, which will grow significantly over this report's 10-year forecast, making up a significant part of the US$1.6 trillion future automotive technologies market.
Connected and Software-Defined Vehicles
Connectivity is nothing new in vehicles, for many years now they have had the ability to communicate key information back to OEMs. The paradigm shift is coming from how OEMs are using the vehicle's connectivity and modern luxury features to create new revenue streams. IDTechEx has already seen some optional extras, like heated steering wheels, transitioning to a subscription model, so that customers only need to pay for it in the winter. New luxury features, like advanced assisted and automated driving systems, are becoming more defined by the vehicle's software than its hardware. Subscription models can be created which keep the vehicle up to date and everything working smoothly.
In addition to new luxury features in the vehicle, connectivity can support payments via the car. Future vehicles will be able to pay for parking, pay for charging, and even pay for drive through coffee, automatically. Of course, the intention is that the OEMs will be able to take a transaction fee of some kind helping them to create new profit through vehicle connectivity. This report provides an overview of applications enabled by connectivity, what software-defined vehicles mean and what they can offer, what the enabling technologies are and how large revenue from services will be in 2034.
In-cabin sensing
Since early lane keep assist systems, where the vehicle could effectively steer itself to a limited degree, cars have needed a way to tell whether the driver is still holding onto the wheel. The easiest way to do this was with a torque sensor in the steering system that could infer from its measurements whether the driver was still holding the wheel. However, these could be fooled, and with modern ADAS systems inspiring so much confidence in their own abilities, combined with the emergence of level 3 systems which offer hands off driving in certain situations, more sophisticated driver monitoring systems are required.
This report highlights the new technologies that are emerging to keep a track of the driver's attentiveness and protect from left behind children and pets. The pros and cons of each system are explained, and their market prospects forecasted.
Through these megatrends the automotive industry is seeing irreversible transformation from a status quo that has lasted for decades. The way customers drive, interact with, and own their vehicles is changing. The 10-year forecasts in this report bring together the most disruptive technologies coming to the automotive industry.
Key aspects
This report provides an overview of the emerging megatrends in the automotive market:
  • Autonomous driving
  • Electrification
  • Connected and software-defined vehicles.
  • In-cabin monitoring
For each of these megatrends find out:
  • Current state of deployment
  • Drivers for growth
  • What the enabling technologies for these trends are
  • What the potential opportunity is for componentry and new service-based revenue streams
  • Market forecasts in unit sales of vehicles and components, and US$ revenue from component sales and services.
Report MetricsDetails
CAGRFuture automotive technologies are predicted to have a CAGR of 21.1% from 2024-2034 reaching a market size of over US$1.6 trillion
Forecast Period2024 - 2034
Forecast UnitsUnit sales, revenue (US$)
Regions CoveredNorth America (USA + Canada), Europe, Japan, China, Worldwide
Segments CoveredAutonomous vehicles with SAE levels 0-4 plus robotaxis. Electric car powertrain; BEV, HEV, PHEV, & FCEV. Connected & software-defined vehicles using IDTechEx's SDV level guide (levels 0 to 5). In-cabin sensing using TOF camers, infra-red cameras, radar, steering wheel torque sensors, steering wheel capacitive touch sensors.
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Table of Contents
1.1.This Report
1.2.Autonomous Vehicles - Key Takeaways
1.3.Autonomous Vehicle Opportunity in 2034
1.4.Autonomous Component and Services Revenue Forecast 2024-2034
1.5.Electric Vehicle - Key Takeaways
1.6.Electric Vehicle Opportunity in 2034
1.7.Electric Vehicle Component Revenue Forecast 2024-2034
1.8.Connected and Software Defined Vehicles - Key Takeaways (1)
1.9.Connected and Software Defined Vehicles - Key Takeaways (1)
1.10.Connected and Software Defined Vehicle Opportunity in 2034
1.11.Connected and Software Defined Vehicle Services Revenue Forecast 2024-2034
1.12.In-Cabin Sensing - Key Takeaways
1.13.In-Cabin Sensing Opportunity in 2034
1.14.In-Cabin Sensors Sales Revenue 2024-2034
1.15.Total Opportunity in 2034
1.16.Component Revenue Opportunity Forecast for Future Automotive Technologies 2024-2034
1.17.Service Revenue Opportunity Forecast for Future Automotive Technologies 2024-2034
1.18.Total Opportunity Forecast for Future Automotive Technologies 2024-2034
2.1.1.Included in this Chapter
2.1.2.Three Key Takeaways for Autonomous Cars
2.1.3.SAE Levels of Automation in Cars
2.1.4.The Automotive Market is Now Recovering From COVID-19
2.2.Private Vehicles
2.2.1.ADAS and AV key terminologies
2.2.2.Legislative Barriers for Private Autonomous Vehicles
2.2.3.The Autonomous Legal Race
2.2.4.Progression of Level 0, Level 1 and Level 2
2.2.5.Emergence of level 3 and Level 4 Technologies
2.2.6.Leading Level 2 OEM - Tesla
2.2.7.Leading Level 2 OEMs - GM with Super Cruise and Ford with BlueCruise
2.2.8.Leading Chinese OEMs - XPeng and Arcfox, pushing for level 4
2.2.9.Level 3 - Mercedes S-Class (2021), EQS (2022)
2.2.10.Private Vehicle Leaders
2.2.11.When Will There be Level 5?
2.3.Level 4 Robotaxis
2.3.1.MaaS Level 4 is Different From Privately Owned Level 4
2.3.2.Robotaxis & Robot Shuttles
2.3.3.Furthest testers in 2022
2.3.4.Benchmarking Performance with Miles per Disengagement
2.3.5.Robotaxis Now Approaching Human Levels of Safety
2.3.6.The Beginning of Commercial Robotaxi Services
2.3.7.Robotaxi Commercial Service market entry by region
2.3.8.State of development
2.3.9.Cruise Controversy in Q4 2023
2.3.10.Cruise's Relaunch and IDTechEx's Take on the Situation
2.4.Sensors for ADAS and Autonomous Technologies
2.4.1.The Big Three Sensors
2.4.2.Sensor Requirements for Different Levels of Autonomy
2.4.3.Sensor Suite Costs
2.4.4.Front Radar Applications
2.4.5.The Role of Side Radars
2.4.6.Vehicle Camera Applications
2.4.7.LiDARs in Automotive Applications
2.5.Key Autonomous Car Forecasts
2.5.1.Global Vehicle Sales and Peak Car by SAE Level 2022-2044
2.5.2.Sensors for Cars Revenue: 2022-2044
2.5.3.Autonomous Cars Summary
3.1.1.Electric Vehicle Definitions
3.1.2.Three Key Takeaways for Electric Cars
3.2.Emissions Regulations & Targets
3.2.1.China Purchase Subsidies Extended
3.2.2.EU Emissions and Targets
3.2.3.US Emissions Standards
3.2.4.COP26 Transport Targets
3.2.5.COP27 Transport Targets
3.2.6.Powertrain Tailpipe Emissions Comparison
3.2.7.Grid Emissions (1)
3.2.8.Grid Emissions (2)
3.3.Electric Car Market Trends
3.3.1.Cars - Total Cost of Ownership
3.3.2.Electrified OEMs Have High Market Caps
3.3.3.OEM Sales Global Sales Shares 2015-2023
3.3.4.Hybrid Car Sales Peak
3.3.5.Hybrid Car (HEV) Regional Sales 2015-2022
3.3.6.Fuel Cell Car Models
3.3.7.Honda to Re-enter FCEV the Market
3.3.8.Growth and Stagnation of Fuel Cell Passenger Cars
3.3.9.Hydrogen: Emissions & Cost Issues
3.3.10.Fuel Cell Car Forecasts
3.3.11.Chip Shortages - 2020 to 2023
3.3.12.Chip Shortages - Automaker Reactions
3.3.13.Chip Shortages - Electric Vehicles
3.3.14.Electric Pickups - The Big US Opportunity
3.3.15.Electric Pickup Release Dates
3.3.16.Electric Pickups Battery, Motor & Towing Benchmark
3.3.17.Electric Pickup Model Pricing
3.3.18.Tech Companies Entering the EV Market (1)
3.3.19.Tech Companies Entering the EV Market (2)
3.3.20.OEM ICE Phase Out and BEV Production Targets
3.4.Key Forecasts
3.4.1.Global Car Sales by Powertrain 2015-2044
3.4.2.Electric Cars Summary
4.1.Software Defined Vehicles
4.1.1.What is a software-defined vehicle?
4.1.2.Hardware requirements for an SDV
4.1.3.Software-Defined Vehicle Level Guide
4.1.4.SDV Level Chart : Major OEMs compared
4.1.5.SDV Level Guide Explained
4.1.6.SDV feature map
4.1.7.SDV Feature Forecast 2013-2034 (1)
4.1.8.SDV Feature Forecast 2013-2034 (2)
4.1.9.Over-the-Air updates and diagnostics
4.1.10.SDV Feature Revenue Forecast by SDV Level 2024- 2034 (Global Revenue)
4.1.11.Software-Defined Vehicle Forecast (Units)
4.1.12.SDV Conclusions and Key Takeaways (1)
4.1.13.SDV Conclusions and Key Takeaways (2)
4.2.Connected Vehicles
4.2.1.What is a Connected Vehicle?
4.2.2.Connected Vehicles Key Terminology
4.2.3.Radio Access Technologies Compared
4.2.4.The Connected Vehicle Supply Chain
4.2.5.Radio Access Technologies Compared
4.2.6.V2V/V2I Supply Chain
4.2.7.V2X Chipsets - Comparison (1)
4.2.8.V2X Modules - Comparison (2)
4.2.9.Example V2V/V2I use cases summarised
4.2.10.V2X Regional Regulatory Status
4.2.11.V2V/V2I Uptake Forecasting (expected)
4.2.12.V2V/V2I Radio Access Technology Forecast (expected)
4.2.13.Why 5G Matters for Autonomy
4.3.Key Forecasts
4.3.1.SDV Feature Forecast (Global Revenue)
4.3.2.Software-Defined Vehicle Forecast (Units)
4.3.3.V2V/V2I Uptake Forecasting (expected)
4.3.4.V2V/V2I Radio Access Technology Forecast (expected)
4.3.5.Connected and Software Defined Cars Summary
5.1.Acronyms and Definitions
5.2.1.Interior Monitoring System (IMS), Driver-MS and Occupant-MS
5.2.2.Why Driver Monitoring?
5.2.3.What is Driver Monitoring?
5.2.4.Current Technologies for Interior Monitoring System (IMS)
5.2.5.Technologies Categorization: Driver Monitoring System (DMS)
5.3.OEM IMS Technology Choices
5.3.1.Overview of In-Cabin Sensors by OEM (1)
5.3.2.Overview of In-Cabin Sensors by OEM (2)
5.3.3.Summary of Sensors for In-Cabin Monitoring
5.4.IMS Sensing Technologies Overview
5.4.1.Infrared (IR) Cameras in DMS
5.4.2.Trend - Integration into Mirrors or Displays with ADAS
5.4.3.Potential Integration Areas
5.4.4.IR Cameras for Passenger Cars - Volume Forecast 2020-2034
5.4.5.Average IR Camera Per Passenger Car: 2020-2034
5.4.6.ToF Camera for DMS - Principles
5.4.7.ToF Imaging Sensors: Resolution and Price Benchmarking
5.4.8.Yearly Volume Forecast ToF Cameras: 2020-2034
5.4.9.Average Number of ToF per Vehicle: 2020-2034
5.4.10.Radar - Introduction
5.4.11.Comparison of In-Cabin Radars
5.4.12.Forecast - Yearly Volume Sales of Radar: 2020-2034
5.4.13.Forecast - Radar Per Vehicle: 2020-2034
5.4.14.Current Status of Capacitive Sensors in DMS
5.4.15.Evolution of DMS Sensor Suite from SAE Level 1 to Level 4
5.4.16.Data Privacy
5.5.Key Forecasts
5.5.1.Yearly Volume Sales Forecast: In-Cabin Sensors (Millions): 2020-2034
5.5.2.Yearly Market Size Forecast: In-Cabin Sensors (US$ Billions): 2020-2034
5.5.3.In-Cabin Sensing Summary
6.1.Total Cars Forecasting Methodology
6.1.1.Methodology Comments
6.1.2.Forecasting Methodology: Robotaxis
6.1.3.Robotaxi Commercial Service market entry by region
6.1.4.Robotaxi Fleet Size 2024-2034
6.1.5.Robotaxi Service Revenue 2024-2034
6.1.6.Forecasting Methodology: Private Cars (1)
6.1.7.Forecasting Methodology: Private Cars (2)
6.1.8.Total Vehicles Forecast by Region 2024-2034
6.1.9.Total Vehicle Forecast by SAE Level 2024-2034
6.1.10.Total Vehicle Sales Revenue by SAE Level Forecast 2024-2034
6.1.11.Sales Revenue from Autonomous Driving Sensors
6.1.12.Electric Vehicle Sales Forecast 2024-2034
6.1.13.Electric Vehicle Sales Revenue Forecast 2024-2034
6.1.14.Electric Vehicle Key Components Revenue 2024-2034
6.1.15.Vehicle Sales Forecast by SDV Level 2024-2034
6.1.16.Revenue from SDV Features & Services Forecast 2024-2034
6.1.17.In-Cabin Sensor Sales Forecast 2034-2034
6.1.18.In-Cabin Sensors Sales Revenue 2024-2034
6.1.19.Component Revenue Opportunity Forecast for Future Automotive Technologies 2024-2034
6.1.20.Service Revenue Opportunity Forecast for Future Automotive Technologies 2024-2034
6.1.21.Total Opportunity Forecast for Future Automotive Technologies 2024-2034

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Slides 195
Forecasts to 2034
Published Dec 2023
ISBN 9781835700075

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